Google trends query "augmented reality"
Playing with Google trends today and seeing some fantastic stats on the state of public interest in augmented reality. The graph to the left shows the search volume index (average number of searches for query represented as 1.0), with the first significant spike of 2009 in early March.
How can we protect ourselves from something like:
Downhill slope of search volume for "virtual reality"
… from happening in the future? After all, Gartner’s 2009 hype-cycle shows Augmented Reality as being well on its way to the peak of inflated expectations and into the trough of disillusionment.
Let’s take a look at the Nintendo Virtual Boy. Shipping only approximately 800,000 units worldwide since its conception (for comparison, the newer Nintendo Wii console has shipped 52.62 million units globally since its release in later 2006), this head-mounted display game console was an absolute failure despite being conceived in a time and attitude very warm to the idea of virtual reality. The device itself was awkward and head-ache inducing. The prospect of flying around in virtual worlds was so attractive, yet immersive virtual reality never really made it to the mainstream consumer apart from the occasional trip to the local arcade (read: VR Tron game). What advantage does (mobile) augmented reality have over cases like the Virtual Boy? Ubiquity, ubiquity, ubiquity.
While U.S. smartphone penetration is said to be only around 15 – 19%, and app retention rates are less than flattering, it is a number that is growing, and the market is still far from reaching its full potential. When everyone already has the device — the console — augmented reality can and will flourish if the industry plays their cards right.
